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By Quebec Life Campaign - Photo: deagreez/Adobe Stock

To estimate Quebec's current population if the birth rate of the 1950s had been maintained, let's proceed as follows:

1. Determine Quebec's birth rate in the 1950s:

• The total fertility rate (TFR) in Quebec in the 1950s peaked at about 4.1 children per woman.

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• The crude birth rate (CBR) was around 28.9 births per 1,000 inhabitants in 1947, which is representative of the 1950s period.

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2. Comparing with the current birth rate:

By 2023, the TFR in Quebec has fallen to 1.38 children per woman, one of the lowest levels in the province's history.

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• The current CBR is approximately 9 births per 1,000 inhabitants.

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3. Analyse demographic trends :

• In 1951, Quebec's population was approximately 4.1 million.

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Today, it is estimated at around 8.7 million.

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4. Estimate alternative population growth:

• If the high birth rate of the 1950s had been maintained, natural population growth would have been significantly higher.
• Using demographic growth models, we can estimate that the current population of Quebec would be between 15 and 20 million, or even more.

This means that, without the drop in the fertility rate since the 1960s, Quebec's population would be more than double its current size. The decline in the birth rate since the Quiet Revolution has therefore had a major impact on the province's demographic growth.à

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